There is a lot of media hype going on that this election is only between PMLN & PTI. Some columnists are also supporting this suggestion regularly in their columns. It is also a fact that it after a long time that elections in Pakistan are being held on Bhutto & anti-Bhutto divide, rather this time it is Nawaz & Anti-Nawaz divide which will decide the outcome of forthcoming elections. No doubt, PTI has emerged as a strong political force in last few years, especially after 30th October, 2011, but still it is very unwise, to me, to rule out PPP+Allies altogether in these elections. PPP+Allies have conventional vote bank in rural areas of Pakistan, which in unfortunately majorly uneducated & gives a very little ear to what is being said & done practically in the country. To these people, Bhutto is alive even today, no matter even if they have seen outcome of his nationalization policies & the role in division of Pakistan. Similarly, Altaf Hussain & Baacha Khan are flag bearer names for MQM & ANP. Nawaz Sharif is also the name on which PMLN thrive. Even the party of change PTI is nothing, if you take Imran Khan’s name out of it.
Coming back to the point, We see PTI focusing its campaign in Punjab & KPK only, whereas we don’t see any noticeable activity by them in Baluchistan & Sindh. This simply means that they have given up these two provinces even before contesting. So it is quite clear that the majority of vote division will be in Punjab & KPK between PMLN & PTI whereas loyal vote bank of PPP+Allies if choses to vote, may produce surprising results, if not shocking. Further, PPP has a history of covering its corruption & incompetence behind the dead bodies of Butto & Benazir, in which they are more or less always successful & this time again, their campaign focuses on using the same strategy. MQM uses & will use Muhajir card, whereas ANP after succeeding in getting the name of province changed & their bold stance against taliban is still very much in the game to secure seats on their own.
PTI on other hand does not have any conventional vote bank except that came with the electables like Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Javaid Hashmi, Qasuris etc. Their major focus is on youth & selling of their idea of change & some big promises of doing everything right in 90 days, which is frankly speaking, a highly idealistic & impractical approach in practical world. This approach might attract emotional people but majority remains unimpressed by these copied slogans from Obama Campaign of 2008 US presidential Elections. The time is very less for PTI to revamp its policies & approach if they want to compete as a solid force in coming general elections.
So keeping all of the above in view, I foresee, PMLN with simple majority in parliament whereas PPP+Allies will be main opposition parties & it will be left to IK decide whether to join PPP in opposition or make an alliance with PMLN for some Practical Change in Pakistan.
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